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Lincoln Equity Trading Fund

Stocks · Started Apr 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-2.6%
Max Drawdown
54.2%
Trades
30
Win Trades
66.7%
Profit Factor
0.60
Win Months
0.6%

About this strategy

Long/Short Equity Trading Portfolio. We seek to maximize equity in our portfolio through solid trades that last from days to weeks. Trades are deciphered through research, marketing timing, and valuation study. Risk is minimized through position sizing, cutting losses, and taking profits. Please visit our forum at http://collective2.com/cgi-perl/board.mpl?want=listmsgs&boardid=72905975,

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
201235.2-49.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.20.00.00.0-31.8
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/19/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age175 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades30
# Profitable20
% Profitable66.7%
Avg trade duration1.5 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown54.2%
drawdown periodMay 15, 2012 - Sept 27, 2012
Annual Return (Compounded)-2.6%
Avg win$2,450
Avg loss$7,919

Ratios

W:L ratio0.62
Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Sortino Ratio-0.44
Calmar Ratio-0.23

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.00
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life454.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-492.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-2.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-2.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity118.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life1.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$7,919
Avg Win$2,450
# Winners20
Sum Trade PL (losers)$79,192
Sum Trade PL (winners)$49,007
Num Months Winners3
# Losers10
% Winners66.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table174

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)2201.22
Avg Position Time (hrs)36.69
Avg Trade Length1.50
Last Trade Ago5212

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0
Treynor Index4.38

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.62
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-3.45
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.25
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats9.31
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats58.52
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.50
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.00
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.29

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.15
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.03
df32
t-1.75
p0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Sortino ratio-1.02
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms33
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion-0.15
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.21
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error31
t(b)1.27
p(b)0.11
t(a)-2.17
p(a)0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.21
Mean-0.16
SD0.15
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.01
df32
t-1.71
p0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.20
Sortino ratio-1.00
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms33
N of observations33
Mean of predictor0.56
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.26
SD of criterion0.15
Covariance0.01
r0.22
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.23
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error31
t(b)1.25
p(b)0.11
t(a)-2.13
p(a)0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.01
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.23
Jensen alpha (a)-0.23
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean-0.13
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.54
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.54
df730
t-0.91
p0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.63
Sortino ratio-0.65
Upside Potential Ratio1.07
Upside part of mean0.21
Downside part of mean-0.34
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms716
N of observations731
Mean of predictor0.65
Mean of criterion-0.13
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error729
t(b)-0.16
p(b)0.56
t(a)-0.88
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)31.49
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
Mean-0.16
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.63
df730
t-1.06
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.81
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.80
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.54
Sortino ratio-0.73
Upside Potential Ratio0.94
Upside part of mean0.20
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms15
N negative terms716
N of observations731
Mean of predictor0.59
Mean of criterion-0.16
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.00
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error729
t(b)-0.17
p(b)0.57
t(a)-1.03
p(a)0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.45
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)34.27
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.22
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.11
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.46
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6792459640111104
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)4.94136146081152e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations33
Minimum0.81
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.84
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.27
Number of observations731
Minimum0.77
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 11.00
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low15
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high16
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)-0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.30
Quartile 10.30
Median0.30
Quartile 30.30
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.04
Median0.08
Quartile 30.30
Maximum0.53
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.53
Inter Quartile Range0.26
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-439951488
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)135
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.41
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.23
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.11
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.12
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.81
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 40 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
FB long4500May 18, 2012May 29, 2012($46,984)
NFLX long21427May 14, 2012May 18, 2012($29,416)
JPM short500May 18, 2012May 18, 2012($105)
VZ long2000May 10, 2012May 18, 2012$903
QSII long2000May 11, 2012May 16, 2012($1,808)
NFLX long24997May 9, 2012May 11, 2012$7,529
DIS long100May 10, 2012May 11, 2012$1
QSII long300May 10, 2012May 10, 2012$21
HAS long2500May 9, 2012May 10, 2012$868
NFLX short1429May 9, 2012May 9, 2012($18)
NFLX long7144May 9, 2012May 9, 2012$1,311
HRB short200May 7, 2012May 9, 2012$4
DECK short4900May 1, 2012May 9, 2012$1,336
CSTR short300May 8, 2012May 8, 2012$221
HRB short4500Apr 27, 2012May 1, 2012$988
VZ long200Apr 30, 2012May 1, 2012$82
DECK short2000Apr 30, 2012May 1, 2012$1,200
GME short1000Apr 23, 2012Apr 30, 2012($485)
DECK short1500Apr 30, 2012Apr 30, 2012$2,277
HRB short1000Apr 23, 2012Apr 26, 2012$1,425
NFLX short10713Apr 23, 2012Apr 25, 2012$24,078
AMZN short100Apr 23, 2012Apr 24, 2012($311)
ORCL long500Apr 23, 2012Apr 23, 2012($25)
SAP long500Apr 23, 2012Apr 23, 2012$0
CVC short2000Apr 20, 2012Apr 23, 2012$460
PCLN short50Apr 23, 2012Apr 23, 2012($152)
NFLX short12143Apr 19, 2012Apr 23, 2012$5,323
VZ long100Apr 20, 2012Apr 20, 2012($11)
TTWO short500Apr 20, 2012Apr 20, 2012$10
AAPL short714Apr 19, 2012Apr 19, 2012$664

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.